This entry was posted on Friday, November 11, 2011
, 3:41 AM and is filed under Breakout,Price Action,Spot Forex. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response.
I sat watching this and as it was stalling under the highs and then broke and did not really pullback so I missed it. (All the time in my head saying wait for the break)
Are you saying here the PA before the breakout level was good enough to go long rather than wait for the break? Only other opportunity was about one hour later at bounce off 50 level but that was into some resistance.
The blog posts are based upon learning points from price action or market structure. They're not necessarily related to YTC PAT methods, as not all my readers use my strategy.
This post is more relevant to breakout traders.
That being said, there was opportunity to enter long on the pullback prior to the breakout, only if you assessed that it had little follow through (as discussed). Enter there would be in anticipation of this failure short leading to the breakout long. Although it's easy to say this in hindsight as it was what happened, it is a valid entry decision - failure one way can drive price the other. Any long position taken here must be managed aggressively as it only has maybe 5-10 ticks before expected resistance. If the breakout does not occur, scalp a small profit at the resistance level. If you still felt that the breakout might eventuate, you could then (if you wish to go a bit non-YTC-PAT) place a straight breakout trade, in expectation that this small pre-breakout scalp provides a buffer towards reducing losses if the breakout trade fails (ie. breakeven or reduced loss over the sequence of two trades).
Hope that makes sense!
Post breakout, there was a pullback entry opportunity on the 1-min.
I do not trade breakouts, but I think for this situation it would be better to know what the price action before the consolidation was before making a decision to either go long or short at the breakout. If Price action was declining before the consolidation, then the higher probability trade is the breakout to the downside. However, I wouldn't take the breakout at the lower channel of the consolidation. I would look to get into this trade at the upper channel of the consolidation for a short breakout. Like wise, if the price action was rising before the consolidation, an entry at the bottom of the channel would be the higher probability entry than trying to take the long breakout at the top of the channel.
Hi Anon, Thanks. I absolutely agree; if price offers an opportunity to position in the direction of likely breakout, before the breakout, then it offers an excellent opportunity. Cheers, Lance
November 11, 2011 7:35 AM
Hi Lance
I sat watching this and as it was stalling under the highs and then broke and did not really pullback so I missed it. (All the time in my head saying wait for the break)
Are you saying here the PA before the breakout level was good enough to go long rather than wait for the break?
Only other opportunity was about one hour later at bounce off 50 level but that was into some resistance.
Thanks
Di
November 11, 2011 3:28 PM
Hi Di,
The blog posts are based upon learning points from price action or market structure. They're not necessarily related to YTC PAT methods, as not all my readers use my strategy.
This post is more relevant to breakout traders.
That being said, there was opportunity to enter long on the pullback prior to the breakout, only if you assessed that it had little follow through (as discussed). Enter there would be in anticipation of this failure short leading to the breakout long. Although it's easy to say this in hindsight as it was what happened, it is a valid entry decision - failure one way can drive price the other. Any long position taken here must be managed aggressively as it only has maybe 5-10 ticks before expected resistance. If the breakout does not occur, scalp a small profit at the resistance level. If you still felt that the breakout might eventuate, you could then (if you wish to go a bit non-YTC-PAT) place a straight breakout trade, in expectation that this small pre-breakout scalp provides a buffer towards reducing losses if the breakout trade fails (ie. breakeven or reduced loss over the sequence of two trades).
Hope that makes sense!
Post breakout, there was a pullback entry opportunity on the 1-min.
Cheers,
Lance,
November 14, 2011 6:06 AM
I do not trade breakouts, but I think for this situation it would be better to know what the price action before the consolidation was before making a decision to either go long or short at the breakout. If Price action was declining before the consolidation, then the higher probability trade is the breakout to the downside. However, I wouldn't take the breakout at the lower channel of the consolidation. I would look to get into this trade at the upper channel of the consolidation for a short breakout. Like wise, if the price action was rising before the consolidation, an entry at the bottom of the channel would be the higher probability entry than trying to take the long breakout at the top of the channel.
Just my 2 cents.
November 14, 2011 11:37 AM
Hi Anon,
Thanks. I absolutely agree; if price offers an opportunity to position in the direction of likely breakout, before the breakout, then it offers an excellent opportunity.
Cheers,
Lance